Tourism enhancement of small historic centers in seismic areas: the case study of Popoli Terme (Pescara, Italy)

Small historic centers in Italy are a fundamental part of the national identity, acting as custodians of cultural heritage and local traditions. However, in recent decades, these centers have faced increasing challenges related to depopulation, aging infrastructure, and limited economic opportunities. In this context, tourism emerges as one of the few viable paths for revitalization, particularly in regions like central and Southern Italy. The seismic vulnerability threatens the development of sustainable tourist flows. Italy’s economy benefits significantly from cultural tourism, which is no longer limited to iconic destinations but increasingly oriented toward smaller towns, rich in history and authenticity. Unfortunately, the central Apennine regions have been severely affected by the seismic sequences of 2009 (L’Aquila) and 2016 (Central Italy), which triggered not only structural collapses, but also long-term socio-economic consequences. To address these challenges, it is necessary to develop approaches capable of quantifying how seismic risk interacts with local economies dependent on tourism. This study explores the interdependence between seismic risk and tourism development through the case study of Popoli Terme (Pescara, Abruzzo, Italy), a historic town heavily affected by the 2009 earthquake. Specifically, a methodological framework for quantitatively estimating the potential economic effects of future earthquakes on the tourism sector is proposed to align heritage conservation with local development objectives.