Impact of regional agriculture on economic development: A reflection from Lincolnshire, the United Kingdom

Agriculture is a crucial pillar for economic growth, food security, and trade, therefore, it is necessary to study how the performance of agriculture affects the overall situation of a country. This study assessed the extent to which agricultural production in Lincolnshire shapes the agricultural performance of the United Kingdom (UK) and contributes to the economic development of the country. This study used the Chow test and parsimonious vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze data (Gross Value Added (GVA) for agriculture in Lincolnshire during 1997–2023, and GVA for agriculture in the UK, gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK, and agricultural trade balance (ATB) in the UK during 1990–2023) sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Office of National Statistics, Statistica, and the UK Government. The results indicated that GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire accounted for 4.30%–6.90% of the national GVA for agriculture during 1997–2023, and it increased by 57.20% during the study period. Structural break analysis revealed statistically significant breaks of GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire at 5%, 10%, and 1% significance levels in 2004, 2008, and 2013, respectively. The current level of GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire was negatively influenced by the GDP level of previous two years and positively influenced by the ATB level of previous one year. In conclusion, GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire was strongly endogenous, whereas GDP and ATB were weakly exogenous with respect to GVA for agriculture. Furthermore, GVA for agriculture, GDP, and ATB in the UK exerted asymmetric effects on GVA for agriculture in Lincolnshire. This study recommends leveraging the governance opportunities presented by devolution to provide sustained support for agricultural production through mechanisms analogous to the Common Agricultural Policy, particularly in relation to subsidy provision. Devolution can further promote local consumption through targeted campaigns and may serve as a foundation for developing Lincolnshire-specific policies that can strengthen agricultural production and export.