Assessing a sustainable aviation fuel supply chain from winter canola and its carbon intensity considering feedstock yield variations

Replacing conventional aviation fuel (CAF) with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been suggested as a vital means to decarbonize the aviation industry. We considered winter canola a feedstock for SAF production through the hydro-processed esters and fatty acids pathway in the Southeast United States. We incorporated feedstock yield variations in a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming model to optimize the SAF supply chain. Results suggest the potential SAF production for Nashville International Airport (BNA), from an existing oil extraction mill and 0.19 million hectares (ha) of winter canola cultivation, range from 129 million liters yearly (MLY) to 246 MLY with a 90% likelihood. With additional investment and expanded winter canola cultivation to 0.61 million ha, the expected SAF supply to BNA could increase to 348 MLY. An additional 212 MLY can be supplied to Memphis International Airport. After considering the co-product revenues, the expected breakeven cost for SAF is $1.1 per liter. The SAF’s carbon intensity falls into the range from 31 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e MJ -1 ) to 43 g CO 2 e MJ -1 , with 90% probability, which is at least 50% lower than CAF.