Life Cycle Air Emissions External Costs of the current and future Italian electricity generation

Combining Life Cycle Assessment with monetary evaluation, the study presents an environmental estimation of externalities associated with the life cycle of electricity generation in Italy. The analysis quantifies the external costs of air emissions (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) of the current Italian electricity mix (2022) and of two future projections based on decarbonization scenarios (2030 and 2040) presenting a methodological approach based on the regionalization of life cycle air emissions. The results show greenhouse gases contribute over 90% of total externalities, predominantly generating in Italy. National and EU policies aimed at internalizing or compensating for these externalities could be swiftly implemented and prove effective in reducing the externalities of electricity generation. Furthermore, the progressive decarbonization of electricity generation mix leads to a 67.7% reduction in externalities per kWh from 2022 to 2040. The findings also highlight that the effects of the energy transition extend along the externality chain. Externalities shift away from fossil-fuel-exporting countries toward producers of the renewable technologies required for the transition, primarily China. They also move from fuels to renewable-energy infrastructure. The detailed regionalized analysis of emissions across different life cycle phases and geographic areas offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to internalize these externalities and support a sustainable energy transition In this regard, the study highlights effective climate and environmental policy should combine national decarbonization of electricity generation with targeted measures to decarbonize the manufacturing supply chains of renewable-energy technologies in principal producing countries to ensure that the environmental benefits are maximized globally.