Global meta-analysis of bioenergy crops reveals substantial greenhouse gas mitigation potential

Bioenergy crops offer potential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, although the global abatement potential across different land use types remains insufficiently researched. Based on a meta-analysis of 718 publications covering 74 species across 31 countries, this study quantified yield, GHG emissions, and mitigation potential under various land systems. Results reveal that land-crop configurations fundamentally determine GHG tradeoffs: croplands optimize synergies, (e.g., Miscanthus: 12.93 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ yield, 4.14 t CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ emissions), forests increase emissions despite high productivity, and wetlands perform poorly. Random forest modeling identified key drivers (e.g., clay content for yield, rotation frequency for emissions). Long-term projections show Miscanthus maintains robust productivity and stable emissions until 2050, while uncertainty rises for other crops. Strategic prioritization recommends Miscanthus on croplands/grasslands and avoidance of high-emission systems. The results underscore that scalable bioenergy deployment aligned with Paris Agreement targets requires context-specific land-crop matching and strict avoidance of high-emission types.