Mapping the global flow of fiber-reinforced polymer composites and supply chain energy requirements

Production of fiber-reinforced polymer composites is materially-inefficient and energy-intensive. This study identifies improvement opportunities by conducting a material flow and energy analysis of the 2024 global composite supply chain. Bayesian inference is used to reconcile production material flow data extracted from academic and grey literature (e.g., industry reports) with data noise assigned using a Pedigree Matrix, generating balanced mass flows with quantified uncertainty. Supply chain energy requirements are determined by coupling the material flows with feedstock and process energy intensities collected from LCA literature and databases. In 2024, around 12.2 Mt of composites entered use, requiring around 2030 PJ primary to produce and generating approximately 2.5 Mt of manufacturing scrap. Component production from feedstocks accounted for 45% of primary energy demand (60:40, thermoset:thermoplastic), followed by resin (40%) and fiber (15%) production. This study discusses opportunities and challenges in transitioning to lower-energy production, including alternatives to energy-intensive oil-based feedstocks and more efficient manufacturing processes. Energy attributable to system material losses (determined using input–output analysis) rivaled those of the largest end-use sectors. This study examines strategies to increase system-level material utilization by boosting closed-loop recycling of mass-production scrap (e.g., from injection molding) and shifting from low-yield (semi-)manual processes to automated manufacturing (e.g., pultrusion).