Climate stability hinges on energy-material feedback dynamics: Aluminum perspectives

Accelerating climate actions is urgent, but progress hinges on material availability. Here, we develop a model to explore the dynamic feedback between energy and material systems. The model is solved progressively in time, having no predictive optimization, which allows uncovering unexpected outcomes. For example, when considering energy-aluminum interactions, supply constraints strongly influence transition trajectories: A scenario that aims to limit peak heating to 1.7 ° C can only achieve a peak of 2 ° C due to delays in scaling supply chains. Quantifying the system-wide potential of technical interventions mitigating material constraints, like substituting aluminum in PV systems, can accelerate the transition by up to two decades and has a scenario-dependent systemic effect of four to nine times greater than its direct CO 2 emission reduction (see SM S5). Furthermore, demand-side interventions enable returning CO 2 concentration to 350 ppm before 2100. Such system knowledge allows identifying physically feasible strategies and guide decision-making towards planetary stability.