Modelling material recovery from end-of-life electric vehicle batteries in Australia to 2050

The rise in electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Australia presents a waste management challenge, considering the current lack of a mature lithium-ion battery recycling industry. This study developed a material flow model to evaluate future scenarios impacting battery waste volumes and recovery potential from cathode material on an annual basis to 2050. The modelling suggests annual waste volumes of spent lithium-ion batteries from EVs could range between 500,000 and 900,000 tonnes by 2050, depending on EV market projection trajectories. Our analysis shows how future changes in battery chemistry, size, expected lifetimes, and recycling efficiency can significantly affect the potential value of recovered materials. One of the most significant variables is recycling efficiency, which has the potential to increase the total mass of recovered materials by over 200%. The results of this study can be used by stakeholders to further policymaking and inform future investment in recycling infrastructure.