An integrated Dempster-Shafer approach for evaluating development potential of urban underground space

Irrational development of urban underground space (UUS) will inevitably affect sustainable urban development, whereas scientific evaluation of development potential can effectively address this issue. This study proposes an integrated Dempster-Shafer (DS) approach for evaluating the development potential of UUS (DPUUS) by incorporating the improved fuzzy matter-element model (IFMM), Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and DS theory. A similarity-based fusion rule is introduced to handle evidence with high conflict. A systematic multi-source evidence fusion framework covering 13 indicators is proposed for assessing DPUUS using the center of distribution (COD) defuzzification technique. Twelve cities in China are selected as case studies to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach combining with the MC technique. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) via the PAWN method is conducted. The results indicate that urban GDP is the core factor influencing DPUUS (KS median =0.3692, KS mean =0.4605, and KS max =0.6502). Policy support, UUS demand, and urban carbon reduction demand constitute a key auxiliary driving layer that collectively strengthens the economic driving effect. The proposed framework provides concrete decision support for urban planners by identifying high-potential development zones, facilitating the formulation of differentiated UUS strategies, and integrating carbon reduction goals into land resource management.