Agricultural transition on the brink of crisis: Forecasting development trends in the eastern Urmia lake basin

• Agricultural development index forecasts a rise from 0.339 to 0.463 by 2041. • Horticulture and agronomy subsectors will surpass livestock and rural development. • Cultivated area expansion increases water consumption despite drought conditions. • Rainfed agriculture suffers significant productivity loss compared to irrigated. • Policy intervention is crucial for sustainable water use and cropping patterns. Climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and declining precipitation, has include a severe water crisis in arid and semi-arid regions like the Urmia Lake basin. This study forecasts the impact of this crisis on development trends within agricultural subsectors in the eastern part of the basin, which constitutes 43% of its total area. A composite index comprising 38 indicators was constructed to assess the development level of agronomy, horticulture, livestock, and rural subsectors for the period from 2012 to 2041. Results indicate a significant shift in developmental rankings across this period. Initially, in 2012, the rural and livestock subsectors were the most developed, with horticulture and agronomy following. However, projections under current trends indicate to 2041 that horticulture and agronomy will ascend to the first and second ranks, respectively, while livestock and rural development will be relegated to lower positions. Consequently, the overall agricultural development index for the region is projected to increase from 0.339 to 0.463. Given that agriculture is the primary water consumer, these findings highlight a critical sectoral transition that may occur if current trends persist, underscoring the urgent need for policy interventions to balance development with hydrological sustainability. To ensure balanced and sustainable development, policymakers must implement strategic interventions are essential. Recommended measures include promoting optimized cropping patterns, preventing the expansion of cultivated land, and prioritizing the allocation of limited water resources to high-value crops.