Modelling the energy-transport-land nexus: A CLEWs-based assessment on renewable energy pathways in Lao PDR

Laos’ updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) prioritises decarbonisation and energy sustainability, yet progress is challenged by Laos’ reliance on imported petroleum for transport. This prompts government effort to promote biofuels and electric vehicles (EVs). This study applies the CLEWs (Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems) framework within the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to assess interlinkages between renewable energy, transport, and land-use in Laos over the 2020-2050 period. Four national-strategy based scenarios were modelled: (i) baseline least-cost, (ii) 10% biofuel share, (iii) combined biofuel and EV targets (30% penetration among cars and 2-3 wheelers), and (iv) combined policy scenario with cropland constraint. Results shows that hydropower remains the dominant electricity source until 2050, with solar and waste-based generation emerging as a lucrative option after 2040. Biofuels are policy-driven rather than cost-optimal, while a 30% EV target for cars is economically feasible but requires policy intervention for 2-3 wheelers. Combining all policy measures achieves the lowest emissions but limits crop production. The study suggests supporting the target with land allocation for biofuel crops, biofuel feedstock diversification, and incentives for EV. As renewables become the least-cost power source, Laos could also consider coal phase-out by 2045. Overall, findings underscore the need for integrated policy planning within the CLEWs nexus to guide future national strategies.