Projecting climate change impacts on thermal performance and fitness of Octopus maya in the Campeche Bank

Climate change poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems with rising sea temperatures, particularly affecting the thermal performance and fitness of marine ectotherms, such as Octopus maya . The present study developed a prospective model to assess the impact of temperature changes on O. maya populations in the Campeche Bank, a key fishing region in the Gulf of Mexico. The model integrates physiological data with thermal gradients estimates across three distinct zones: upwelling (Zone I), transitional (Zone II), and non-upwelling (Zone III), and incorporates the instantaneous effects of temperature on performance and tolerance time. The results indicate that O. maya exhibits optimal fitness within a temperature range of 21°C to 26°C, with a significant decrease in fitness as temperatures exceed 26°C, particularly in warmer Zone III. Continuous bottom temperature monitoring is essential, especially in shallow coastal waters where O. maya is harvested by artisanal fishers to assess long-term viability. The findings highlight the importance of integrating environmental monitoring with adaptive management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on this valuable species and the coastal communities that depend on it.