It takes two to court: Partnership formation in the context of forced migration

Since 2015, Germany has seen a significant influx of Syrian and Afghan refugees, predominantly young, unmarried, Muslim men without well-established co-ethnic communities. Confronted with an often unwelcoming reception context, a key question arises: how likely are these refugees to develop close social ties with the resident population? This study explores the relationship between German residents' attitudes toward partnerships with refugees of varying religious affiliations and educational backgrounds and the likelihood of cross-national partnerships among refugees. By utilising a factorial survey experiment from the 58th wave of the German Internet Panel (GIP; N = 3,192) and data from the first wave of the PARFORM survey of Syrian and Afghan refugees (N = 1,512), we examine whether these attitudes influence partnership outcomes. Our findings reveal that favourable views of the “average” refugee do not correlate with higher probabilities of cross-national partnerships. Whereas positive views of non-Muslim, highly religious, and low-educated refugees show no relationship with cross-national partnership formation, favourable perceptions of Muslim, lowly religious, and highly educated refugees are associated with a greater likelihood of such partnerships. This study underscores the importance of considering resident population preferences as a critical element in the opportunity structure for refugee integration. • The study explores how attitudes of the German population towards refugees affect cross-national partnerships among refugees. • We use the new PARFORM survey on the partnership history and characteristics of refugees in Germany. • Positive views of Muslim, lowly religious, and educated refugees increase their cross-national partnership likelihood. • Views of non-Muslims, highly religious and lowly educated refugees are weakly or not related to their cross-national partnerships. • It emphasizes resident preferences as crucial for refugee social integration in Germany.