Skills or credentials? How skill specific and standardized vocational training moderates the wages of occupational mismatches

This article examines the relationship between institutional features of vocational education and wage outcomes following occupational mismatches using a multidimensional mismatch framework. Drawing on German administrative data for early‑career male VET graduates, the analysis assesses how two institutional dimensions, training standardization and skill specificity, relate to wage returns for horizontal, vertical, and full mismatches. The results show that higher standardization negatively moderates wage outcomes for horizontal and full mismatches, while greater skill specificity is linked to reduced transferability and increases wage penalties for vertical mismatches. Individuals in full mismatches experience large baseline penalties that appear less conditioned by institutional features. Horizontal mismatches do not show wage penalties when multiple mismatch dimensions are considered simultaneously. These findings suggest that distinct institutional features of the training system, credential verification and skill transferability, relate to mismatch outcomes and contribute to stratification in early‑career wages.