Destination drone: A comprehensive analysis of Japanese consumer choice behavior and intentions for drone delivery services

The potential for drone delivery to transform logistics and consumer behavior is increasingly recognized, yet comprehensive evidence on consumer delivery choice, particularly in Japan, remains limited. This study addresses this gap by examining Japanese consumers' preferences for drone delivery services. Using a stated preference (SP) survey and discrete choice modeling, we analyze how delivery time, delivery cost, drop-off location, social influence, and product type affect consumer choices across demographic groups. The findings reveal that while consumers show interest in drone delivery, delivery cost and delivery time are key determinants of adoption, with consumers exhibiting high cost sensitivity. Estimated willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures further indicate how consumers value faster delivery and alternative delivery modes. Drop-off location significantly affects motorcycle delivery choices but not drone delivery choices. Notably, younger and male consumers show a higher propensity to use drone delivery, and product type, particularly daily consumer goods and medical or healthcare items, plays a critical role in shaping consumer choices. These findings enhance our comprehension of consumer responses to emerging delivery modes and offer valuable insights for logistics providers and policymakers seeking to integrate drone technology into Japan's evolving logistics system.