Using factor analysis and regression technique to predict cost overrun in road network construction projects

ABSTRACT Road construction projects in Egypt, as in many other developing African countries, frequently experience significant cost overruns. This study systematically analyzes the causes of such overruns to enhance understanding and improve risk management practices in the field. The research identifies key factors contributing to cost overruns and examines their relationships. A prediction model was developed to help estimate appropriate contingency costs by evaluating the impact of these factors on the overall project cost. Using Factor Analysis (FA), Regression Analysis (RA), and Regression Model (RM), the study assessed the significance of various cost overrun factors. The findings indicate that poor material quality, scope-of-work changes, and quantity variations are the primary causes of cost overruns in road construction projects. This study benefits both local and international researchers and practitioners by providing actionable insights. It highlights the practical implications of the findings and emphasizes key features that decision-makers should consider to improve the performance of the road network construction sector. As a critical driver of urban development and modern community establishment, enhancing the efficiency of road construction is essential for sustainable growth and infrastructure development. The study also helps the government address the risks associated with road network projects during the pre-tendering phase, enabling it to better manage its financial resources.