AI-based assessment of climate change impacts on water requirements in Egypt’s New Delta

This study assesses the influence of climate change on the projected water requirements (WR) for wheat cultivation in Egypt's New Delta region. Climate projections from five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) regional climate models under three socio-economic scenarios (SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP8.5) were employed to estimate WR utilizing a Deep Learning Artificial Intelligence (DLAI) model. Thirteen meteorological stations throughout the New Delta were examined to evaluate drought indicators, such as the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI/eRDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI/aSPI). Results indicate a consistent rise in annual RDI and eRDI across most stations, with the most pronounced trends observed in AlFrafrah and Borg Elarab. Conversely, SPI and aSPI values demonstrated declining trends, indicating increasing dryness; approximately 16% of SPI observations corresponded to moderately dry conditions, with certain stations such as Baharia and Siwa exhibiting severe dryness. WR exhibits a consistent upward trajectory across all scenarios, attaining its peak levels by 2100 under SSP8.5. WR increases by 9–12% under SSP2.6, 15–18% under SSP4.5, and 24–36% under SSP8.5. These findings indicate that climate-induced increases in WR will significantly raise irrigation requirements, highlighting the necessity for ongoing evaluation of water resource development and allocation strategies.