Assessing introduction of alternative fuel of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles on the demand for fossil fuel in Nigeria

Following the removal of fuel subsidies and the consequent rise in transportation costs, the Nigerian government introduced Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as an alternative automotive fuel to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. This study assesses whether this policy intervention has achieved its intended impact. A mixed-methods research design was adopted, combining quantitative survey data from CNG conversion centres and transport operators across six Nigerian states with qualitative interviews from CNG users and vendors. Data reliability was confirmed with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.8. Descriptive statistics, Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), and thematic analysis using qualitative software analysis to examine adoption patterns, willingness to switch, and barriers to CNG use. Findings indicate that although awareness and willingness to adopt CNG are growing, the transition has not significantly reduced fossil fuel demand. Major barriers include high conversion costs, limited refuelling stations, safety concerns, weak policy enforcement, and low public awareness. Income level was identified as a significant determinant of willingness to switch. In spite of these challenges, CNG has helped to stabilize petroleum prices and reduced tricycle operating cost due to demand for dual-fuel tricycles. Operators report higher profits with CNG but, broader policy goal remain unmet. CNG adoption in Nigeria remains in its early stages, with stronger policy, infrastructure investment, and public awareness campaigns needed to achieve meaningful fossil fuel reduction. The study highlights that while CNG offers cost and environmental benefits, inadequate implementation and infrastructure have limited its broader policy impact.