Measuring the impact of urban morphology on residential energy consumption at the neighborhood-level in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, the residential sector accounts for 16.8% of national energy use, mostly from natural gas. Current policies and standards aimed at reducing residential energy consumption mainly focus on improving the performance of buildings and appliances. The critical role of urban morphology in moderating microclimate by cooling surrounding areas and shielding buildings from solar radiation has been demonstrated, particularly in hot-summer zones. However, assessments of the impacts of urban morphology on residential energy consumption remain insufficiently examined, especially in cold-climate areas that have received less attention. In this study, we develop a systematic framework to define and classify urban morphology indicators at the neighborhood scale. We apply this framework to neighborhoods in the Netherlands and employ a data-driven Spatial Durbin Model to estimate the impacts of urban morphology on per-capita residential energy consumption, considering landscape metrics, building characteristics, and demographic indicators. The results reveal that more compact built environments and interspersed water bodies are associated with lower energy demand, whereas tree- and grass-covered green infrastructure exhibit contrasting effects. Overall, beyond the significant influence of building characteristics and demographic features, the composition and configuration of land use also exert measurable impacts on per-capita residential energy consumption. These findings demonstrate the role of neighborhood-scale urban morphology and suggest strategies for reducing residential energy use from the perspective of landscape planning in relatively cold climates.