Case study of power sector decarbonization in Ontario, Canada

Ontario’s electricity demand is projected to rise significantly due to the electrification of all sectors in society. This study investigates the feasibility of replacing natural gas-based power generation with renewable alternatives. Using HOMER Pro, six alternative systems were modeled, combining the expansion of existing renewable resources with the integration of emerging technologies. Alternative systems are assessed under regular and deferrable load conditions, which shift demand to periods of excess electricity generation. Key evaluation metrics include Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Cost (NPC), total generation, and excess generation. Case 6, featuring distributed solar PV, offshore wind turbines, expansion of nuclear generation, and Li-ion BESS adoption, offers the most balanced performance with the lowest LCOE among alternative cases. Results show that deferrable load strategies effectively reduce LCOE and excess generation while increasing NPC and total generation. This research provides insights for Ontario’s power system planning and supports the pathway to decarbonization.