A feasibility-based framework for decentralized urban growth in megacity regions

Rapid metropolitan growth in water-stressed megacity regions has renewed interest in decentralized urban development, yet such strategies often overlook binding environmental and legal constraints. This study applies a feasibility-screening framework to evaluate decentralized growth potential in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (GMA), Mexico, using a sequential, non-compensatory approach based on necessary conditions rather than composite sustainability indices. Transport connectivity, population and territorial context, food production capacity, and integrated water availability are assessed for three candidate municipalities. While all cases satisfy the structural and contextual conditions, the results indicate that water availability constitutes the dominant limiting factor when physical supply and legal accessibility are jointly considered. Only one municipality meets the water feasibility criterion under current conditions, whereas the others fail despite favorable performance in other dimensions. The framework provides a transferable tool for early-stage urban planning in water-constrained megacity regions.