Demand thinking in futures research: Characterising assumptions in studies of domestic water use

How resource demand is conceptualised within futures studies plays a decisive role in shaping research outcomes and demand management strategies. This paper proposes the term demand thinking as an analytical tool to examine these conceptualisations, making explicit the assumptions through which futures are imagined and acted upon. In doing so, it contributes to debates on how futures methods and modelling practices condition which forms of intervention come to be seen as possible and desirable. The paper investigates how demand thinking is mobilised in two bodies of demand futures research. Firstly, it provides a systematic overview of household water futures studies, classifying study aims, model types and demand variables. These classifications are used to characterise assumptions about the future of domestic water use. Secondly, the paper explores the potential of a social practice perspective to address gaps identified in this literature. Findings indicate that household demand futures research remains underpinned by predominantly positivist assumptions, despite the evolution of modelling techniques. This framing obscures the social and contextual complexity of demand and narrows the range of intervention pathways envisaged. Moreover, there is a paucity of futures research placing water demand in its wider societal context. Social practice perspectives are explored as a counter-narrative to dominant approaches by centralising everyday futures and highlighting demand variability. Ultimately, this paper argues for methodological pluralism – understood as engaging with multiple forms of demand thinking both within methodologies and across a research landscape – to inform effective demand management and foster sustainable futures within and beyond the water sector.