Heat and Harm: The Effect of Temperature on Severe Agricultural Trauma in South Korea

Background: Agriculture is recognized as a high-risk occupation for severe traumatic injuries. Among various occupational hazards, environmental factors-particularly ambient temperature-may significantly influence the incidence of such trauma. This study investigated the association between temperature variation and the incidence of severe agricultural trauma in South Korea. Methods: We estimated the fixed effects panel regression model using data from the 2016-2021 Community-based Severe Trauma Survey, merged with daily meteorological records. By controlling for weather-related covariates and time-variant regional characteristics, this approach identified the causal effect of temperature on the incidence of severe agricultural trauma. Results: Relative to 15-20°C, lower temperatures had little impact on the incidence of severe agricultural trauma, whereas higher temperatures increased incidence in a monotonic pattern-rising by about 39% at 20-25°C, 61% at 25-30°C, and 123% at >30°C. By trauma type, temperatures above 20°C monotonically increased trauma risk, with the strongest effect observed for exposure to or ingestion of harmful substances compared with transportation-related accidents and slips, trips, and falls. Conclusion: Elevated ambient temperatures are a significant predictor of severe agricultural trauma incidence. These findings highlight the need for preventive strategies and policy interventions tailored to mitigate temperature-related risks among agricultural workers, particularly during periods of extreme heat.