A parametric evaluation of rooftop photovoltaic utilization and yield density considering urban morphology effects

Urban morphology plays a critical role in shaping the energy utilization potential of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems, with key factors including building height, available roof area, as well as obstruction angles and orientation influencing shading patterns and solar exposure. Previous research highlighted the impact of building and urban forms on enhancing solar energy utilization and decreasing energy demands. However, the development of a simple design model that captures the relationship between key design parameters and their impact on PV Utilization potential and Yield Density requires further large-scale investigation. This study aims to develop design-oriented regression models that enable practitioners to reliably estimate PV technical potential in the early stages of the design process. A comprehensive parametric analysis with around 1,000 simulation runs were conducted to evaluate and predict rooftop PV energy performance, emphasizing the influence of building and urban design parameters. Correlation analysis and regression models are developed to interpret the parametric relations and utilization potential of PV on building’s rooftop in Cairo, Egypt. Results indicate that roof-to-total floor area (RTFA %) and sunhours % are the most significant predictors of PV Utilization. These variables interact such that the sensitivity of PV Utilization in response to sunhours variations is doubled with every increase in RTFA %. In contrast, sunhours % and South obstruction angle are found to be the effective predictors of PV Yield Density. This study provides valuable insights for informed decision making, enabling the design of urban environments that maximize solar energy utilization and support sustainable development.