Combining physical- and scenario-based modeling to identify tolerable degradation rates of perovskite in monolithic two-terminal perovskite/silicon tandem modules

As crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells approach their theoretical efficiency limit, the perovskite/silicon (PerSi) tandem technology offers a promising solution for further improving the efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) modules. However, as perovskite cells are facing stability issues, it is unclear whether PerSi modules will have a larger lifetime energy yield (LEY) than c-Si modules. In this work, we present a novel methodology to simulate the LEY of PerSi tandem devices, accounting for environmental stress factor-dependent degradation across four different climates. Our approach combines a physics-based analytical degradation model for components shared with c-Si modules and a scenario-based degradation model for the perovskite top cell. This method enables us to identify the tolerable degradation rate ( k t o l ) of the perovskite cell under different scenarios and climatic conditions. We find that k t o l is lowest when degradation occurs in the short-circuit current, reaching a minimum value of 1.2% per year in Delft (the Netherlands). Additionally, we demonstrate that k t o l inversely depends on the module lifetime, reaching values up 7.6% per year in Lagos (Nigeria). Moreover, we show that module efficiency ( η m o d ) significantly impacts k t o l . For instance, increasing η m o d from 28.0% to 32.9% raises k t o l by approximately 50%. Additionally, we propose a simplified model that can predict k t o l without the computationally intensive simulations, which has a root-mean-square error of 0.34% per year. Lastly, environmental impact assessments reveal that PerSi modules are more sustainable in all impact categories when the degradation rate is 80% of k t o l for LEY.