Assessing the efficiency of U.S. Aid to Africa: A DEA–Malmquist productivity approach

Purpose This study evaluate the relative efficiency of U.S. bilateral official development assistance (ODA) in achieving economic development in 33 African countries over the period 2000–2023. Design/methodology/approach The study applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure how efficiently countries convert U.S. ODA into selected economic development outcomes. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is conducted to decompose productivity changes into Efficiency Change (EC) and Technological Change (TC). Findings Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in US aid absorptive efficiency. While some countries operate relatively near the efficiency frontier, others exhibit persistent inefficiencies. Productivity growth over the study period is primarily driven by internal efficiency improvements rather than sustained technological progress. However, after 2015, efficiency gains appear to moderate across much of the sample. The paper concluded that U.S. aid effectiveness in Africa depends more on domestic absorptive capacity than on shifts in global conditions, and thus, institutional factors and governance improvements are essential for maximizing aid outcomes. Originality/value By combining panel DEA with MPI decomposition, this study contributes a dynamic and comparative assessment of U.S. aid utilization in Africa. The findings highlight the importance of domestic absorptive capacity in shaping aid performance, while acknowledging methodological limitations inherent to deterministic frontier techniques.