Do geopolitical tensions increase negative attitudes toward minorities? Evidence from a natural experiment in India

On April 22, 2025, militants carried out an attack near the village of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir. Over the next couple of weeks, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated, culminating in a 4-day war between the nuclear powers. Using a survey experiment conducted in Uttar Pradesh, we explore how changes in geopolitical tensions influenced the attitudes of Indian Hindus toward Indian Muslims and other minorities. We find that the conflict between India and Pakistan caused Hindu attitudes toward religious minorities to significantly deteriorate. Negative attitudes toward Muslims, Christians, and Sikhs peaked after India announced nationwide preparations for a “hostile attack” but eased somewhat when India engaged in direct conflict with Pakistan. Attitudes nearly returned to baseline levels in the days following the ceasefire. Regarding theoretical mechanisms, the evidence suggests that despite any positive impacts of patriotic unity, the negative impacts of psychological distress and group threat had dominated. Taken together, the findings underscore the vulnerability of minorities during times of national crisis.