Licensing delay versus reduced car orientation in Germany: A cohort perspective using panel data

In Germany, the share of driver’s license holders aged 17 to 20 has decreased from 57.4 % in 2012 to 44.1 % in 2025. Since licensing shares serve as an indicator of future travel behavior, it is important to evaluate whether young cohorts in Germany delay or forgo licensing. This paper contributes to the debate on licensing delay versus reduced car orientation by applying discrete-time survival models to the German Mobility Panel (1994–2022) to estimate the determinants of driver’s license acquisition and to disentangle age, period, and cohort (APC) effects. The results showed that age, household composition, education, employment, car ownership, and spatial factors were significant determinants of obtaining a driver’s license. The strongest effect resulted from reaching the legal minimum age for obtaining a driver’s license. Higher costs for driving school, license fees, and car acquisition reduced the probability of obtaining a license. Members of Gen Y and Gen Z had a statistically significantly lower annual licensing probability compared to Baby Boomers at a given age. Cohort differences in out-of-sample predicted probabilities with respect to the timing of obtaining a driver’s license were only significant at age 18. The difference was no longer significant after controlling for further covariates, indicating that differences can be explained by life-course events such as graduating from school. A weaker decline in predicted licensing probabilities across age groups among Gen Y and Gen Z indicates a delayed licensing for a part of the younger generations compared to Gen X.