Does digitalization really reduce environmental pressure? Evidence from emerging economies on the digital environmental paradox

Accelerating digital transformation across emerging economies has sparked intense debate over its net ecological impacts, particularly in fossil-fuel-dependent, energy-intensive production regimes. To clarify this conditional relationship, the environmental effects of digitalization and energy intensity are evaluated across twelve emerging countries (2009–2022) using a distribution-sensitive Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) framework. Empirical findings confirm the existence of a "digital environmental paradox." While digitalization reduces the overall ecological footprint and delivers stronger mitigation effects in high-environmental-pressure regimes, these benefits systematically weaken as economic energy intensity increases. Energy intensity remains the primary driver of ecological degradation across all quantiles, whereas economic growth follows an Environmental Kuznets Curve pattern with a high turning point. Rather than treating digitalization as a standalone green solution, policymakers must mandate energy-efficient green data centers, link digital infrastructure subsidies directly to renewable energy grids, and implement targeted industrial energy-efficiency retrofits.