“Paying not to work?” examining the validity of forest sector narratives on COVID-19 pandemic relief and labor impacts

The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in labor markets across the United States. This study examines forest-sector stakeholders’ narratives around pandemic assistance programs and their perceived labor impacts, drawing on 35 semi-structured interviews with mill representatives, loggers, landowners, and foresters in Georgia. We identified narratives around stimulus payments, expanded unemployment insurance, and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and assessed validity of those narratives using available evidence. We also explored how broader cultural beliefs and public rhetoric shaped these narratives using a narrative based theoretical lens A recurring narrative was that government assistance to individuals, particularly stimulus payments and expanded unemployment insurance, reduced labor availability and led to wage increases. We found mixed evidence for this claim, along with a more complex picture indicating that pandemic assistance also stimulated business activity and consumer demand, which in turn contributed to tighter labor markets and rising wages. Another common theme focused on the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). While some participants viewed PPP as essential for business survival, others criticized it as fiscally irresponsible and poorly targeted, especially within a sector that largely remained operational during the pandemic. Evidence suggests both interpretations have merit, as PPP supported employment but incurred high costs and lacked precise targeting. These narratives were shaped by broader cultural factors, including trust in government, views on public spending, as well as public rhetoric during the pandemic. As policy perceptions are shaped by cultural narratives as much as by empirical evidence, future policies should account for influence of such narratives.