Who benefits from forest co-management? Heterogeneous welfare effects under rainfall shocks in Malawi

• Socioeconomic, biophysical and institutional factors significantly influence the likelihood of a household's participation in VNRMCs across Malawi • Forest co-management participation through VNRMC membership significantly improves household welfare across forest reserve landscapes. • VNRMC membership’s effect is spatially heterogeneous across forest reserve landscapes • Household participation in VNRMCs helps safeguard forestry income against rainfall shocks • Participation in VNRMCs significantly reduces per capita income disparities within households bordering forest reserves in Malawi In Malawi, smallholder households bordering protected forests are structurally vulnerable to weather shocks with limited institutional coping strategies. In the context of climate change, wild resource co-management may provide a key mechanism for improving household welfare and reducing inequalities among riparian communities. Based on a field survey of 743 smallholder households’ data coupled with georeferenced rainfall and forest cover data across seven forest reserve landscapes in Malawi, this study empirically analyses the impact of participation in Village Natural Resource Management Committees (VRNMCs) on household welfare, income inequality, as well as its safety net role in the aftermath of rainfall shocks. Employing IPWRA, PSM, and quantile regression methods, the study shows the following results: First, socioeconomic, biophysical, and institutional factors significantly influence the likelihood of household participation in VNRMCs. Second, despite the disparities within forest landscapes,VNRMC membership significantly increases forestry income, non-forestry income, the consumer durable index, and food consumption score. Third, household involvement in VNRMCs helps safeguard forestry income from rainfall shocks, although the effect remains spatially heterogeneous. Fourth, in the context of weather shocks, participation in forest co-management significantly reduces per capita income disparities within households bordering forest reserves in Malawi, particularly for the lowest-income households. This study highlights the need for the Malawian Department of Forestry, donors, and local communities to strengthen participatory management of natural resources for pro-poor conservation purposes in the context of weather shocks. Longitudinal and panel studies are required for further field-based evidence.