Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions

Transport Policy 2026 Open access

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Authors: Michael Schulthoff, Philipp Anstett, Marvin Scherzinger, Jelto Lange, Martin Kaltschmitt
DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994
Cited by: 1
References: 8

Abstract

• Germany’s car fleet transition is analyzed across five electrification scenarios. • BEVs dominate new sales by 2035, but legacy ICEs delay full decarbonization beyond 2045. • Tailpipe CO 2 emissions could drop up to 98 % by 2050 through electrification • Residual ICE fleet remains without further policy interventions after 2045.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure Energy Environment and Transportation Policies Vehicle emissions and performance

Publication details

Journal / source
Transport Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
179
Pages
103994–103994
Publication date
2 January 2026
Language
EN