Modeling car owners’ stated preferences for electric micro-mobility ownership: Evidence from a mixed logit approach

Electric micro-mobility (EMM) ownership, particularly of e-bikes and e-scooters, is widely promoted as a sustainable solution for reducing car dependence and supporting urban decarbonization. Yet, little is known about the drivers of EMM ownership or the effectiveness of purchase incentives—especially among car owners who have the highest mode-shift potential. To address this gap, we conducted a stated preference (SP) survey with 1478 car owners from Brisbane, Australia, yielding 5912 choice observations. Respondents indicated their willingness to purchase an EMM device under various incentive policies, with particular focus on two incentive types: a direct rebate and a car replacement rebate, the latter offering a higher rebate rate for those willing to trade in their private vehicles. A mixed logit model was employed to estimate the effects of incentive attributes while accounting for unobserved preference heterogeneity. The results highlight the sensitivity of ownership choices to individual incentive attributes. Simulation of hundreds of alternative incentive structures further uncovers systematic patterns for designing more cost-effective schemes to increase EMM adoption under fiscal constraints. Building on these insights, both statistically optimal and practically feasible incentive design guidelines are proposed for policymakers. Overall, the study underscores the importance of carefully tailoring incentive structures and presents illustrative examples that optimise cost-effectiveness by balancing government expenditure with projected ownership gains.