From early adopters to early majority: Barriers and policy support needs for battery-electric truck adoption in Germany and Sweden

The transition to battery-electric trucks (BETs) is an essential step toward decarbonizing heavy-duty road transport. While early adopters have driven initial market uptake, achieving large-scale adoption requires understanding the barriers faced by the early majority (i.e., transport companies that have yet to transition). This study examines these barriers and identifies policy support needs to facilitate accelerated BET adoption. Drawing on four datasets from Germany and Sweden, including surveys, interviews, and workshops with more than 200 transport companies, this research compares the experiences of early adopters with the perceived barriers of the early majority. Findings reveal that the early majority perceives the issues encountered by early adopters during operation, such as charging infrastructure limitations, range constraints, and economic uncertainties, as continuous risks that reinforce their hesitancy toward adoption. Additionally, we uncover new barriers not extensively discussed in existing innovation diffusion literature: regulatory uncertainty and contested technological pathways. This study, therefore, contributes to innovation diffusion research by linking the decision-making of the early majority to early adopters’ experiences and by providing actionable policy recommendations to achieve transport sector decarbonization goals.