Prioritizing light-vehicle electrification cities through real-world pollution-based GIS assessment

• Geo-based simulation of traffic patterns in a densely populated region. • Road-level estimation of pollutant emissions using graph-based methods. • Calculation of a traffic-weighted mobility index with municipal resolution. • Multi-criteria evaluation of localized environmental impact indicators. Achieving decarbonization targets requires major reductions in fossil-fuel use. Electrifying light-duty vehicles offers substantial environmental benefits, yet quantifying these gains is challenging due to heterogeneous traffic patterns and pollution levels. This study introduces a GIS-based method that maps pollutant emissions and traffic volumes onto the road network to produce municipal-level mobility-impact indexes. Daily travel routines derived from mobility surveys are combined with real pollution maps to compute segment-level emissions, which are then aggregated for spatial comparison and policy prioritisation. Applied to Lombardy, Italy, the method shows that although Milan and other dense cities benefit markedly, numerous peri-urban and semi-rural municipalities also show high potential due to large intermunicipal commuting flows. Overall, 13% of municipalities are classified as highest-priority areas, accounting for nearly a quarter of regional traffic-related emissions. The results reveal non-linear urbanisation-benefit relationships and underscore the need to include less-urbanised territories in equitable and effective electrification strategies.