From coast to coast: Understanding electric vehicle adoption across Canadian regions

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have experienced rapid growth in market share both in Canada and globally over the past decade. However, adoption rates vary significantly across Canadian regions, raising questions about the sustainability of current growth trajectories. This study (1) identifies the drivers of regional disparities in BEV adoption within Canada, and (2) projects nationwide adoption levels. We exploit a proprietary, nationwide Canadian dataset of vehicle transactions, geocoded at the postal-code level, from 2016 through 2024. Using this dataset, we calibrate and compare three technology‐diffusion models to capture historical uptake and forecast future penetration. Our analysis reveals that regional BEV adoption is predominantly shaped by socio-demographic characteristics while charging station availability and other regional attributes exert comparatively smaller effects. Model comparisons indicate substantial uncertainty in long-term forecasts: adoption trajectories vary markedly depending on model structure and parameterization. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policy interventions and localized strategies.