A systems modelling approach to predict biological responses to extreme heat

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2026 Open access

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Authors: Daniel W.A. Noble, Margaret M. Mayfield, Ary A. Hoffmann, Zhong-Hua Chen, Steven J. Lade, Xuemei Bai, Danielle A. Way, Belinda E. Medlyn, Owen K. Atkin, Adrienne B. Nicotra, James M. Cook, Brajesh K. Singh
+3 more Alison R. Bentley, Ian J. Wright, Michael R. Kearney
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2026.01.009
Cited by: 6
References: 101

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to more frequent and extreme heat waves. These large-scale events are radically reshaping interactions among organisms-impacting biodiversity, community composition, and ecosystem services crucial to natural systems and food security. Predicting heat wave impacts on interacting species requires an understanding of the processes driving differential exposure and sensitivity of organisms to extreme heat events in a life cycle context. To achieve this predictive capacity, we need to integrate models across scales while capturing species-specific responses at the individual level. We review and demonstrate how existing models in disparate fields can be linked to achieve an increased understanding of how individuals and communities will respond to extreme heat, now and into the future.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Thermoregulation and physiological responses Effects of Environmental Stressors on Livestock Thermal Regulation in Medicine

Publication details

Journal / source
Trends in Ecology & Evolution
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
41
Issue
5
Pages
451–464
Publication date
11 March 2026
Language
EN