Modelling the impact of Bikeability cycle training on the number of people killed or seriously injured on UK roads

Introduction Road traffic collisions and the number of people killed or seriously injured (KSIs) are shaped by multiple factors. However, the role of cycle training in influencing KSIs has received little attention, despite Bikeability – a UK government-funded cycle training programme – having been delivered to millions of schoolchildren since 2007. This study aimed to examine whether higher levels of Bikeability training are associated with reductions in cyclist-involved KSIs across English local authorities. Methods Poisson and Negative Binomial models were applied to publicly available local authority-level data, controlling for population size, cycling prevalence, and geographic variation. Overall KSI rates and cyclist-involved KSI rates were analysed over a ten-year period across 112 local authorities in England. Findings The exploratory analysis identified a weak but statistically significant negative association between Bikeability Level 2 training delivery and cyclist-involved KSI rates. Specifically, higher levels of Bikeability Level 2 training were associated with lower KSI rates. In contrast, greater traffic volumes and higher deprivation levels were linked to increased KSI rates. Conclusions Bikeability Level 2 training may represent one of several factors that contribute to improved cyclist safety on roads. Nonetheless, further research is needed to strengthen this evidence base, ideally through studies that can establish causal relationships.