High-speed rail and economic growth: a market access–based economic impact evaluation in China

• Establishes a causal link between accessibility gains and economic growth in a national high-speed rail network. • Shows HSR expansion increases national economic output rather than merely reallocating activity across regions. • Introduces an instrument based on terrain-driven least-cost network design to overcome endogenous route placement. • Identifies pronounced network effects, where benefits accelerate after full network integration. • Finds that aggregate economic gains exceed financial costs, supporting system-level rather than corridor-level evaluation. Debates continue over whether high-speed rail (HSR) generates new economic value or simply reallocates activity across space. This study evaluates the national economic impact of China’s HSR system through a Market Access (MA) framework grounded in quantitative spatial economics. We derive and empirically estimate a log–log elasticity between MA and GDP using county-level panel data from 2007 to 2020 and an instrumental-variable strategy based on least-cost spanning networks. Results show that a 10 % increase in MA leads to a 0.89 % increase in GDP. Counterfactual simulations indicate that without HSR, China’s 2020 GDP would have been 3.31 % lower (≈6.7 trillion RMB). Temporal counterfactuals further reveal a strong network formation effect: economic gains rise sharply once previously fragmented corridors became an integrated national network in 2017. An economic impact evaluation suggests that aggregate gains exceed construction and operating costs, indicating positive net national value. By integrating transport planning, spatial economics, and infrastructure policy, this study provides network-level evidence that HSR can generate positive-sum national growth rather than zero-sum redistribution.