Spatiotemporal variation analysis of the correlation between transit-oriented-development and retail distribution in Taipei, Taiwan

• Analyzes the long-term spatiotemporal evolution of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and retail distribution in Taipei (2001–2016), reflecting its polycentric urban transformation. • Integrates spatial autocorrelation, BiLISA, OLS, and GWR to capture spatial heterogeneity and the context-dependent drivers of TOD–retail interactions. • Reveals an eastward retail shift and marked TOD expansion along metro corridors, particularly in peripheral districts like Beitou and Shilin. • Identifies walkability, transit accessibility, and density as key drivers, while highlighting the varying spatial impacts of land-use mix. • Provides localized policy insights for employment hubs and neighborhood centers to better integrate transport planning and retail vitality. This study examines the spatiotemporal variation in the relationship between transit-oriented development (TOD) and retail distribution in Taipei, Taiwan, from 2001 to 2016. Using spatial autocorrelation (BiLISA), Pearson correlation, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation, the evolution of TOD intensity and retail activities in response to metro system expansion is analyzed. TOD intensity is assessed using the TOD Standard 3.0 framework on a 500 × 500-m grid, while retail indicators are derived from village-level industry census data. The results indicate that TOD intensity increased markedly, particularly in the districts of Beitou, Shilin, and Wenshan, while retail activities shifted eastward and gradually formed a polycentric pattern aligned with major transit corridors. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models reveal significant positive associations between TOD and retail development, especially for walkability, transit accessibility, and density. However, the effects of connectivity and land-use mix vary spatially, revealing the context-dependent nature of TOD impacts. The findings highlight the need for localized TOD strategies that better align transport infrastructure with retail development to foster sustainable and inclusive urban growth.