Understanding mobility choices in Australia’s driverless future: A mixed logit modelling study

Driverless vehicle mobility in Australia is rapidly evolving, demanding a deeper understanding of user preferences and emerging travel behaviours. Conventional classifications such as ‘owned only’, ‘shared only’, or ‘bus riding only’ often fail to capture the hybrid and overlapping nature of future mobility choices. This study reconceptualises autonomous mobility choice (AMC) into three integrated modes: private autonomous mobility (PAM), shared autonomous mobility (SAM), and public autonomous mobility (PUAM), enabling a more holistic understanding of multi-modal travel. Using survey data from 985 respondents across Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney, a Mixed Logit (MXL) model was employed to examine determinants of AMC preferences. Descriptive analysis reveals strong interest in PAM (22%) and moderate engagement with SAM (3%), while traditional private vehicles continue to dominate (35%). The MXL model identifies significant predictors influencing AMC choices, including age, vehicle value, use of driving aids, trip purpose, adoption timeframe, current commuting mode, travel distance, and relocation intentions linked to AV adoption. Marginal effects indicate younger adults exhibit lower interest in PAM, whereas mid-value car owners show stronger preferences for PUAM and SAM. Long-distance commuters are more likely to adopt SAM, while those considering relocation from urban centres tend to prefer PAM. Overall, the findings reveal diverse and evolving patterns of AMC in Australia, underscoring the importance of adaptive, inclusive, and forward-looking policy frameworks to guide the equitable and sustainable integration of autonomous mobility within future transport systems.