Who continues to shop online? Sociodemographic determinants of post-COVID e-commerce

This study investigates the persistence of post COVID-19 online shopping behaviors in the United States across sociodemographic and mobility-related contexts. Using nationally representative data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, we model self-reported changes in online shopping frequency relative to pre-pandemic levels through a four-outcome mixed logit framework that distinguishes temporary increases, permanent increases, no change, and decreases in online shopping frequency. Our results reveal that sustained reliance on online shopping is not uniform. Individuals with greater socioeconomic resources and digital access, such as higher-income, higher-education, and urban residents are significantly more likely to report permanent increases rather than temporary changes. Mobility-related factors including remote work, disability status, and altered travel intensity further contribute to long-term reliance on online shopping. Conversely, substantial heterogeneity exists within several demographic groups who exhibit both sustained increases and reversions. Our study provides new insight into the uneven permanence of digital consumption by framing post-pandemic online shopping as a set of competing behavioral outcomes. These findings inform transportation planning and freight policy by identifying where delivery demand is likely to remain elevated, highlighting the need for targeted infrastructure investment, expanding digital access and refined freight demand forecasting in the post-pandemic era.