Geopolitical Risk and Its Measurable Impacts on International Trade and Transport Systems

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on trade and transport between the EU and Russia from 2022 to 2024. Analysis of Eurostat data and the Geopolitical Risk Index revealed a 58% decrease in EU exports and an 86% drop in imports, disrupting global supply chains. Significant changes particularly affected maritime and air transport, with air freight declining by 5.2% between 2022 and 2023, while short-sea shipping dropped by 2.9% and deep-sea shipping by 3.4%. Current trends, however, indicate a decline in the intensity of political and economic responses to the conflict, as the introduction of new sanctions and their implementation are significantly weaker compared to the initial stages of the war.