Assessing sustainable urban logistics hub impacts in Sweden: A case study of the Mall of Scandinavia using integrated emission and freight network modelling

Urban freight distribution is under increasing scrutiny due to its environmental impact, particularly air pollutant emissions. Key factors influencing these emissions include vehicle types, technology choices, infrastructure characteristics and logistics hub locations. To address these aspects, we propose an empirical operational agent-based spatial modelling approach that integrates freight demand estimation with COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT V) local air pollutant emissions estimation. Our approach incorporates producing firms, consuming firms, and carriers to estimate freight demand based on shipments. It accounts for impacts on environmental indicators from variables such as electric truck penetration and logistics hubs, considering parameters including road network slopes and route assignments. The methodology uses GIS-based road networks combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate slopes and employs Dijkstra algorithm to assign shortest-path routes with slope constraints. Outputs include number of trips, Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT), and sustainability Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) related to fleet speed, capacity and technology. Focusing on Mall of Scandinavia operations, results show total Carbon Monoxide (CO) tailpipe emission reductions up to 92%, Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ) emission reductions up to 89%, and Particulate Matter (PM 10 ) emission reductions up to 37% for 30 km/h scenarios with and without logistics hubs. Hubs implementation with electric vehicles significantly reduces exhaust air pollutant emissions but may increase non-exhaust PM 10 emissions due to added battery weights. Simulations also highlight that replacing outdated internal combustion engine vehicles with efficient, higher-capacity alternatives under high fill rates and centralized dispatch conditions may demonstrate a VKT advantage and emissions, offering insights for policy-making and urban planning. This study focuses specifically on the hub locations and vehicle fleet configurations analysed in the Mall of Scandinavia case. As a result, the findings should be understood within this localized Swedish context and be cautiously directly applied to other urban freight systems or regulatory environments, and underscores the critical role of vehicle technology, route choice, and logistics hubs in enhancing urban freight systems.