When the city gets too hot: Decline in green space visits under extreme summer temperatures

Ongoing climate change indirectly threatens human well-being by reducing recreational opportunities in urban parks and other green areas. However, few studies have quantified how high temperatures deter visits to green spaces, or how visitor characteristics influence such decisions. To address this gap and inform climate adaptation policies, this study used the stated-preference method to examine residents’ intentions to cancel urban green space visits during periods of high summer temperatures. A binary logit model revealed that temperatures > 26 °C significantly discouraged visits, with over 90% of respondents canceling at 32 °C. The analysis also identified heterogeneity in preferences; older adults and women were more vulnerable to heat and were more likely to cancel visits at higher temperatures. These findings suggest that reduced green space use under climate change conditions may disproportionately affect vulnerable groups. The findings also highlight the importance of urban planning in addressing social isolation risks by repurposing green spaces for community use during hot months. This study underscores the urgent need for adaptive measures to ensure equitable access to green spaces and their benefits in urban areas.