Unlocking value from residual municipal waste: A primary data analysis of recovery rates and costs

• Material recovery analysis from residual waste sorting plants in three EU countries. • Recovery rates vary by waste composition, sorting technologies, and plant targets. • Up to 48% reduction of residual waste disposed in landfills or incinerated. • Plastic material-specific recovery between 22% and 55% • Market corrections needed to compete with incineration and landfilling. Ambitious waste management targets have been established in the European Union (EU) to raise recycling rates and minimize landfilling. Nevertheless, a substantial share of municipal waste (MW) is still collected as residual waste (RW), containing significant amounts of recyclables ultimately lost through incineration/landfilling. As reliance solely on source separation has proven insufficient to meet policy requirements, this study assesses the potential contribution of advanced sorting and mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) plants to recover materials from RW before disposal. Preliminary primary data from three facilities in Norway, Spain, and Italy were analyzed to quantify material flows and recovery rates (RR) across different geographical contexts. A refined mass balance framework was applied, focusing on RRs corrected for impurities to avoid performance overestimation. An environmental life cycle costing analysis was conducted to explore economic conditions under which RW sorting becomes competitive with incineration/landfilling. Overall material RRs of approximately 39%, 11%, and 48% were observed for the investigated facilities. Material-specific RRs indicate that 22%-55% of plastics and 23%-40% of recyclable plastics in RW could be recovered, with performance varying depending on material type, plant configuration, and operational objectives. While the results demonstrate potential to increase material recovery and reduce RW sent to disposal, economic viability remains highly dependent on policy-driven price signals. Landfill tax, extension of EU Emission Trade System to incinerators/landfills, and effective plastic tax are essential to monetize externalities from cheaper landfilling/incineration alternatives.