Projection of greenhouse gas emission reduction from municipal solid waste management using thermal technology in Surabaya City: A path toward 2050 national climate goals

The continued growth of MSW generation in Surabaya City is projected to reach 939,804.10 tons in 2050, leading to a rebound in GHG emissions, which had previously been reduced after the operation of the gasification unit in 2021. Thermal technology’s role in preventing increases in emissions was assessed using an empirical approach within the lifecycle framework, following the IPCC method. The enhancement of gasification capacity induces the net emissions saving, from −18,015.96 tons CO 2-eq in 2025 to –22,518.55 tons CO 2-eq and −26,126.86 tons CO 2-eq in 2035 and 2050, respectively. The city’s lowest net GHG emissions from MSW management will reach −117,401.00 tons CO 2-eq by converting the LFG plant to a 2000 tons per day gasification unit. Surabaya’s Gasification expansion plan mirrors the trajectory of the LCCP scenario, meaning that the initiative contributes significantly to the national NZE ambition. The expected result requires overcoming technical, financial, and social barriers through integrated policy frameworks, innovative financing, and enhanced waste management practices. This study may serve as a reference for policymakers, especially in urban areas, in developing a strategic approach to low-carbon MSW management.