Protest Brokers and the Likelihood of Protest

Chapter 6 tests and illustrates the argument that protest broker availability helps to shape where protests occur by affecting the ability of elites to mobilize collective action. Drawing on a unique combination of original protest data from South Africa, over two years of fieldwork, and a new survey with local elites, the chapter demonstrates that both elites and citizens recognize the pivotal role of protest brokers in enabling protest. The evidence shows that broker presence is a critical factor in explaining geographic variation in protest activity. Through three detailed case studies, the chapter further unpacks the mechanisms behind this relationship. First, it examines repeated failures to mobilize protest in a broker-absent community. Second, it shows how the loss of a broker reduces protest activity in a previously mobilized area. And finally, it analyzes regional protest efforts, revealing that communities with brokers are more likely to participate. These findings confirm that broker availability not only affects local mobilization capacity but also helps to explain larger patterns of protest distribution. The chapter underscores the broader importance of brokerage in collective action, particularly under conditions of elite-led mobilization.