Determinants of the Direction and Speed of Electricity System Transition

The transition in electricity systems from fossil-fuel-based to renewable-energy-sourced electricity must be associated with synchronic changes in the elements of complementarity in electricity systems. A strong complementarity among them impedes transition because each complemental element has its own dynamics, time horizons, and speed of development. This chapter identifies the required changes in the complementary elements in electricity systems by grid paradigm and shows how these changes affect the direction and speed of the transition. Our findings reveal that the super-grid paradigm demands huge investments in large-scale transmission grids and flexible generation capacity, whereas the distributed smart-grid paradigm requires synchronized developments of market-based institutions, infrastructure, and organisations for demand-side integration. The flexible grid paradigm demands fewer changes and is thus easier to transition through, but can turn into a gas lock-in if gas is used as the main dispatchable capacity. Decarbonising dispatchable capacity generates a trilemma between net-zero energy transition, the ‘ energy for development’ narrative, and asset stranding. Based on these findings, we built an analytical framework for electricity system transitions through grid paradigms and will employ it in the case studies of transitions in electricity systems in Chapters 5 and 6.