Cross-Country Patterns in Subnational Allocation of Development Finance

This chapter analyzes the subnational allocation of development finance across forty-eight African countries from 2000 to 2021, drawing on cross-country data from Chinese, World Bank, and OECD-funded projects. It distinguishes between infrastructure-intensive and social sectors and tests how district-level political and ethnic characteristics shape allocation patterns. It also assesses whether these relationships vary by flow type-official development assistance (ODA) versus other official flows (OOF). In particular, it examines region’s electoral strategic value (stronghold, swing, or opposition), incumbent vote share, and ties to the leader’s ethnicity or birthplace. Comparing more accountable traditional financiers (World Bank and OECD donors) with less accountable Chinese financiers, the analysis finds that swing regions and coethnic or copartisan strongholds receive significantly more development finance – especially in hybrid regimes and liberal democracies – than opposition regions. Moreover, the disparity in allocation between coethnic and non-coethnic regions is largest in politically competitive environments.